Comments for Alpha Dinar- talking GCC finance http://www.alphadinar.com Finance blog focusing on the Arabian Gulf region (GCC) Thu, 11 Mar 2010 08:54:35 +0300 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 Comment on Securities House: An Another Investment Dar? by Bo6air http://www.alphadinar.com/2010/03/03/securities-house-an-another-investment-dar/comment-page-1/#comment-6905 Bo6air Thu, 11 Mar 2010 08:54:35 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=3319#comment-6905 of course, hence the transaction part.. of course, hence the transaction part..

]]> Comment on Securities House: An Another Investment Dar? by Mickey http://www.alphadinar.com/2010/03/03/securities-house-an-another-investment-dar/comment-page-1/#comment-6903 Mickey Thu, 11 Mar 2010 07:33:37 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=3319#comment-6903 Substance over form habibi. Substance over form habibi.

]]> Comment on Telecom’s Organic vs. Inorganic Growth by Keynesian http://www.alphadinar.com/2010/03/10/organic-vs-inorganic-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-6870 Keynesian Wed, 10 Mar 2010 11:34:31 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/2010/03/10/organic-vs-inorganic-growth/#comment-6870 Bharti wanted to buy MTN (highest growthing company) but failed in two attempts. Now it wants to buy ZAIN (third highest growing company). Maybe we should've seen that coming? If I was China Mobile, I'd go-out and buy MTN. With China Mobile's ample cash, acquiring MTN opens a new venue for growth in a potentially fast-growing region (Africa). Further, I could see the Africans agreeing to such a deal with the Chinese vs companies from other protective regions in the world. Zain is gone, so China Mobile should really consider this final opportunity. Bharti wanted to buy MTN (highest growthing company) but failed in two attempts. Now it wants to buy ZAIN (third highest growing company). Maybe we should’ve seen that coming?

If I was China Mobile, I’d go-out and buy MTN. With China Mobile’s ample cash, acquiring MTN opens a new venue for growth in a potentially fast-growing region (Africa). Further, I could see the Africans agreeing to such a deal with the Chinese vs companies from other protective regions in the world. Zain is gone, so China Mobile should really consider this final opportunity.

]]> Comment on Telecom’s Organic vs. Inorganic Growth by Organic vs. Inorganic Growth « Alpha Dinar- talking GCC finance | Kuwait today http://www.alphadinar.com/2010/03/10/organic-vs-inorganic-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-6865 Organic vs. Inorganic Growth « Alpha Dinar- talking GCC finance | Kuwait today Wed, 10 Mar 2010 08:16:33 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/2010/03/10/organic-vs-inorganic-growth/#comment-6865 [...] See more here: Organic vs. Inorganic Growth « Alpha Dinar- talking GCC finance [...] [...] See more here: Organic vs. Inorganic Growth « Alpha Dinar- talking GCC finance [...]

]]> Comment on The Leverage Effect by Bo6air http://www.alphadinar.com/2010/03/08/the-leverage-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-6826 Bo6air Tue, 09 Mar 2010 05:43:42 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=3335#comment-6826 @sal: if anything, it is indirect. just plain psychological. The oil money was little exposed to dubai. it was much more exposed to the american/english RE bubble. just some individaul investors had some exposure, not the soverign funds and very few in any of the corporate investors (most are really local firms with very few international exposures.) The saudis have larger exposure, but it remains relatively small as they are mostly pretty much local investors (developers in Saudia Arabia.) as I said the biggest exposure was at the Dubai level and the international banks that lent out to investors (traders really) that were filiping the units. The westerners are now pretty much gone out (not all of course) and this has brought the RE crushing down. and I think it still has much more room to decline... the supply is overwhelming @sal: if anything, it is indirect. just plain psychological. The oil money was little exposed to dubai. it was much more exposed to the american/english RE bubble. just some individaul investors had some exposure, not the soverign funds and very few in any of the corporate investors (most are really local firms with very few international exposures.) The saudis have larger exposure, but it remains relatively small as they are mostly pretty much local investors (developers in Saudia Arabia.) as I said the biggest exposure was at the Dubai level and the international banks that lent out to investors (traders really) that were filiping the units. The westerners are now pretty much gone out (not all of course) and this has brought the RE crushing down. and I think it still has much more room to decline… the supply is overwhelming

]]> Comment on The Leverage Effect by Sal http://www.alphadinar.com/2010/03/08/the-leverage-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-6805 Sal Mon, 08 Mar 2010 21:04:20 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=3335#comment-6805 Between 2002-2008 oil prices hiked at a 30% annual rate. It might be an indirect affect, but Dubai fed in part on the oil wealth of its neighboring Gulf countries. Between 2002-2008 oil prices hiked at a 30% annual rate. It might be an indirect affect, but Dubai fed in part on the oil wealth of its neighboring Gulf countries.

]]> Comment on The Leverage Effect by Bo6air http://www.alphadinar.com/2010/03/08/the-leverage-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-6798 Bo6air Mon, 08 Mar 2010 19:10:55 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=3335#comment-6798 though there was certainly overlap of the "bubbles". the reality is the Oil one was not a cause for the Dubai RE bubble. Otherwise, you would ve seen many firms/banks etc. in so much pain as part of being exposed to Dubai. What fueled the Dubai RE bubble was the availability of cash locally and internationally (British Banks, Russian Banks etc.) and the availability of the Free Hold concept for none GCC citizens!! that’s pretty much it. Even Abu Dhabi banks who are much closer geographically do not have that much exposure to Dubai RE related debt... as most the developers in Dubai were local Dubai firms (Emmar, Nakheel, Damac ..among others.) it was simply cheap money along w/ change in ownership laws and very aggressive leadership that felt invisible at times......the Oil/gas (Qatar boom) was only a coincidence…..but it fueled the RE bubble in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudia Arabia (though this one is starting from really low prices)…that might be true……but Dubai had a different dynamic all together though there was certainly overlap of the “bubbles”. the reality is the Oil one was not a cause for the Dubai RE bubble. Otherwise, you would ve seen many firms/banks etc. in so much pain as part of being exposed to Dubai.
What fueled the Dubai RE bubble was the availability of cash locally and internationally (British Banks, Russian Banks etc.) and the availability of the Free Hold concept for none GCC citizens!! that’s pretty much it. Even Abu Dhabi banks who are much closer geographically do not have that much exposure to Dubai RE related debt… as most the developers in Dubai were local Dubai firms (Emmar, Nakheel, Damac ..among others.)

it was simply cheap money along w/ change in ownership laws and very aggressive leadership that felt invisible at times……the Oil/gas (Qatar boom) was only a coincidence…..but it fueled the RE bubble in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudia Arabia (though this one is starting from really low prices)…that might be true……but Dubai had a different dynamic all together

]]> Comment on The Leverage Effect by Keynesian http://www.alphadinar.com/2010/03/08/the-leverage-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-6796 Keynesian Mon, 08 Mar 2010 18:31:58 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=3335#comment-6796 Well said dxb. I guess you can even say exponential growth in wealth! Credit is gone.. Its time for paying down those debts and a vicious cycle of saving.. Well said dxb. I guess you can even say exponential growth in wealth! Credit is gone.. Its time for paying down those debts and a vicious cycle of saving..

]]> Comment on The Leverage Effect by dxb kola http://www.alphadinar.com/2010/03/08/the-leverage-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-6795 dxb kola Mon, 08 Mar 2010 18:11:30 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=3335#comment-6795 Keynesian is correct although it's technically not true that a bubble in crude oil existed. Crude oil is still in a commodity supercycle bull market, even if for about half a year until the collapse in 2nd half 2008 the market underwent a parabolic rise in price. The Dubai property bubble was fuelled by a credit bubble, exacerbated by regional oil wealth that increased geometrically, or arithmetically, (not sure which is the correct term) over 8-9 years until H2 2008. Deleveraging is indeed a nightmare, but has the collapse of the credit bubble (1982 - middle 2008) really ended? is credit on life support? Keynesian is correct although it’s technically not true that a bubble in crude oil existed. Crude oil is still in a commodity supercycle bull market, even if for about half a year until the collapse in 2nd half 2008 the market underwent a parabolic rise in price.
The Dubai property bubble was fuelled by a credit bubble, exacerbated by regional oil wealth that increased geometrically, or arithmetically, (not sure which is the correct term) over 8-9 years until H2 2008.

Deleveraging is indeed a nightmare, but has the collapse of the credit bubble (1982 – middle 2008) really ended? is credit on life support?

]]> Comment on The Leverage Effect by Keynesian http://www.alphadinar.com/2010/03/08/the-leverage-effect/comment-page-1/#comment-6790 Keynesian Mon, 08 Mar 2010 14:52:13 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=3335#comment-6790 In a way Bo6air the oil bubble fuelled the property bubble as the GCC was splurged by excess cash which was directed to Dubai. In a way Bo6air the oil bubble fuelled the property bubble as the GCC was splurged by excess cash which was directed to Dubai.

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