It seems even the guys at JP Morgan have some spare time at work to talk football. This time they published a full report called the “Quantitative Guide to the World Cup” where they constructed a mathematical method to identify who will win the World Cup according to this Quantitative framework.
While no one can argue that Brazil isn’t the strongest team in the tournament, the Model predicts that due to the fixture schedule, Brazil will not have a place in the winners league. According to the model, the final outcome is expected to be:
World Cup Winner: England
2nd place: Spain
3rd place: Netherlands
The model was built on data including probabilities to win from a range of bookmakers and exchanges, official FIFA World Rankings, and results from previous World Cup tournaments and qualifying competitions.
The most likely to win the World Cup according to:
- FIFA World Ranking Factor (World Ranking Points) Brazil, Spain Netherlands and Portugal.
-”Market” Valuations Factor (Probability of winning the World Cup calculated from the underlying odds offered by exchanges and fixed odds bookmakers): Spain, Brazil, England and Argentina.
-Trend in Probability to Win Factor (Change in Probability of Winning): Slovenia, France, Ivory Coast and Greece.
-Trend in FIFA’s Ranking (Change in FIFA’s World Ranking Points) Algeria, Slovenia, Serbia and Slovakia have the biggest change in World Ranking Points and should be preferred.
-Result Expectations metric (Result expectations from a team’s track record in past World Cups) the top are Brazil, Germany, Italy and Argentina.
-12 month Recent Team Shape (Average Ranking Points won per match) Netherlands, Spain, Brazil and Portugal are the preferred countries.
-Consistency in Market Sentiment Factor (Agreement within the “market” on the probability of a team winning) we can be most confident that Brazil, England, Spain and Ivory Coast provide less risk in terms of result surprise and that they are correctly priced.
-Success Ratio Indicator (Win Ratio adjusted for opponent’s strength) Netherlands, Spain, Chile and Brazil should be preferred.
According the JP Morgan research team, England, who own the World Cup only once in their history are expected to hold the trophy up high with the leadership of the great Fabio Capello. 1966 was the year the whole country went football mad, following the victory over West Germany 4-2 and Geoff Hurst famously scored the only world cup final hat trick ever, are we going to see that madness kicking in back again?
(1 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
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And what about Argentina ?
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Sal Reply:
June 7th, 2010 at 11:21 pm
According to the model? It will conquer Group B, beat Mexico in the knockout stage and loss against Slovenia in the Quarter finals lol
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mathematical model for WC winning! what are these guys smoking? their so called “models” couldn’t predict any of the past busts, overvaluations, manias or anything substantial and now their models to our beloved football.
and those must be from the London branch predicting. England will never a WC outside of England. not even under Capello.
My guess –> Spain (great players), Brazil (Ok players, but too strong in the back and w/ a defensive coach…ugly but effective so they say), or Argentina (thats whom I want to win……..great front, weak back…..but w/ Maradonna everything is possible
)))
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Sal Reply:
June 7th, 2010 at 11:33 pm
Joseph Nicolas once said “There are two components to investment risk: uncertainty and exposure to that uncertainty.” I, just like you, hate quant and never believed in their models but actually think this model is very interesting. We’ll just have to wait and see who’s going to lift that trophy.. but Argentina losing to Slovenia.. Thats going to be interesting
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This is a pretty poor model from the first look
trend in fifa ranking and trend in probability to win seem like stupid factors, no matter how low the weights of these factors are
On another note, I question the accuracy of this information.
Portugal was one of the weakest European countries and struggled to even qualify for the world cup, brely making it trough with a close playoff win. They have also struggled in their friendlies this year. How can they be in the top teams for 12 month recent team shape
I just hope their prediction comes true.. and captain fantastic Stevie G lifts the trophy
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Sal Reply:
June 7th, 2010 at 11:29 pm
And whoever said anything about Portugal going anywhere? They’re going to loss against Spain in the Round 16. They’ll be second to Brazil in their Group. The 12 month recent team shape, the toughest team Portugal played against was the Denmark and thats a biased result that’s why the model doesn’t base its prediction on only 1 metric. Believe it or not Stevie is going to finally lift “a” trophy this year ;p
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Thanks, I for myself can’t wait also and supporting the Netherlands all the way! The model predicts Netherlands losing to England in the semifinal.. I just hope its the other way around!
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Brazil struggled in the qualifications in ‘02 and still got the WC.
these models are worthless. they would ‘ve never predicted Brazil as contender back then.
and I highly doubt England will win. their players expect for Ronnie are very average. they will be out once they face Brazil or italy. the coaches there have similar midsets as cappello and will know how to handle him
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KSE Trader Reply:
June 8th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
Bo6air relax its only a fun model ;P It “tries” to “predict”. Chances are it will be wrong. It’s simply an “interesting” attempt by a financial company to apply it’s models to a football tournament. It is not a Black-Scholes model contender nor is it attempting to win a Nobel prize.
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@KSE Trader: only a fun model huh? only if it wasn’t from JP Morgan!!! I would ve believed that.
they are probably trying to restore all that lost confidence in them and their “prediction” capabilities
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My model says the final is between Holland x an African Team..
However, the model has not yet decided which African Team to get to the final.
In any case, its Holland time this time
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