After the meltdown that was witnessed last week in the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE) there lies some good opportunities. We lost nearly 250 points in the price weighted index last week alone and approximately 1,000 points last months due to the negative news flow from both the economic and political scene. In a previous post, I talked about the rationale of having a negative outlook on Kuwait (http://www.alphadinar.com/2009/10/14/why-the-negative-outlook-on-kuwait/). Nevertheless, markets are volatile and they tend to be oversold or overbought at times, and it is our job as analysts to capitalize on such movements. Looking at the graphs below, Kuwait seems relatively cheap in both P/E and P/B multiples. After losing almost 15% in one month I think the market is awaiting any positive news to rebound.
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Loading ...Tags: GCC, Kuwait, Kuwait Stock Exchange, Saudi Arabia
There may be a dead-cat bounce, but nothing more unless something fundamentally changes (i.e. Zain deal, gov’t recaps banks, US contracts reinstated to Agility). I wouldn’t catch the falling knife yet. Although valuations may look attractive, remember the “E” (Earnings) part of the P/E equation can easily get downgraded which would make the P/E high all of a sudden. Same goes for other ratios.
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i think the key consideration in looking at the kuwait market is risk or uncertainty engendered in the following:
- weak public policy and forward visibility on all timescales
- a highly opaque decision-making process in both public and private sectors and especially where they overlap
- a general lack of concern for improving the business environment for both local and foreign DI
kuwait should never, ever be more than a tiny opportunistic part of an any investors portfolio – kuwaiti or otherwise – unless they are one of the group with robust insider information flow that they can use and ignore the law that has never been used against anyone.
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Is there a pun intended in the title “Kuwait looking cheap”
The E and the B part of P/E and P/B are shaky, hence P has come down to reflect the new reality
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You guys might be right regarding the ‘E’ but do you still think we might see some earnings surprises in the “Blue Chips”? What about the P/BV, it is more stable than the P/E as the BV wont change drastically unless the company is in serious trouble.
I think Kuwait has taken a beating this year and the fall in the market is due mainly from the negative sentiment that is overtaking the country as whole, however, there are some very attractive opportunities at these prices.
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Eid Mubarak
The B part for a lot of firms (bonds and RE) just got shaky thanks to Dubai World and their not so gentle suggestion at restructuring
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Saud Reply:
November 28th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
very disappointing news for Dubai
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I’m bullish on Kuwait. I don’t like to play contrarian, yet Kuwait has been neglected in 2009 and all reports came out negative on Kuwait.
I very strong indicator for the market, in my opinion, is the banking sector. Kuwait banking sector performance has been very stable in 2009, with disregard to provision took by banks.
Kuwaiti banks very soon will show strong growth in the bottom line and that we re-attract the hot cash, specially after the collapse of Dubai.
I see Kuwait benefiting from the collapse of Dubai in 2010.
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