Comments on: Oil Breaks Out: Sustainable or Untenable? http://www.alphadinar.com/2009/10/18/oil-breaks-out-sustainable-or-untenable/ Finance blog focusing on the Arabian Gulf region (GCC) Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:31:23 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: 1001Nights http://www.alphadinar.com/2009/10/18/oil-breaks-out-sustainable-or-untenable/comment-page-1/#comment-2451 1001Nights Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:34:30 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=2437#comment-2451 I couldn't agree more. Sad but true... I couldn’t agree more. Sad but true…

]]> By: Keynesian http://www.alphadinar.com/2009/10/18/oil-breaks-out-sustainable-or-untenable/comment-page-1/#comment-2450 Keynesian Tue, 20 Oct 2009 13:59:07 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=2437#comment-2450 Lol.. I guess the point is weight analyst opinions, BUT ultimately come up with your own opinion. As for ppl who don't know scrap, give your money to a professional. The problem is that in Kuwait finance professionals tend to underperform people who don't know crap because of inefficiency of the market (insider info). Lol.. I guess the point is weight analyst opinions, BUT ultimately come up with your own opinion. As for ppl who don’t know scrap, give your money to a professional. The problem is that in Kuwait finance professionals tend to underperform people who don’t know crap because of inefficiency of the market (insider info).

]]> By: 1001Nights http://www.alphadinar.com/2009/10/18/oil-breaks-out-sustainable-or-untenable/comment-page-1/#comment-2447 1001Nights Tue, 20 Oct 2009 06:50:32 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=2437#comment-2447 Hey! Quit ragging on analysts! Besides, making investment decisions independently can be totally overrated when you don't know scrap. :P Hey! Quit ragging on analysts! Besides, making investment decisions independently can be totally overrated when you don’t know scrap. :P

]]> By: Keynesian http://www.alphadinar.com/2009/10/18/oil-breaks-out-sustainable-or-untenable/comment-page-1/#comment-2445 Keynesian Mon, 19 Oct 2009 23:34:46 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=2437#comment-2445 Good point. Analysts always, "Close the stable door after the horse has bolted." It is a major amateur mistake to have total conviction in analysts. This is why one should always weight different points of view and then come up with their own independent decisions. Good point. Analysts always, “Close the stable door after the horse has bolted.”
It is a major amateur mistake to have total conviction in analysts. This is why one should always weight different points of view and then come up with their own independent decisions.

]]> By: Saud http://www.alphadinar.com/2009/10/18/oil-breaks-out-sustainable-or-untenable/comment-page-1/#comment-2441 Saud Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:42:43 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=2437#comment-2441 Tadawul Index closed 2.11% up; Sabic, good earnings resulted in a 6.33% increase; Rajhi 1.3% up Tadawul Index closed 2.11% up; Sabic, good earnings resulted in a 6.33% increase; Rajhi 1.3% up

]]> By: Saud http://www.alphadinar.com/2009/10/18/oil-breaks-out-sustainable-or-untenable/comment-page-1/#comment-2440 Saud Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:00:04 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=2437#comment-2440 hahah good observation hahah good observation

]]> By: peteyb http://www.alphadinar.com/2009/10/18/oil-breaks-out-sustainable-or-untenable/comment-page-1/#comment-2438 peteyb Mon, 19 Oct 2009 11:28:12 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=2437#comment-2438 no matter what you do, don't trust the so-called analysts and pundits. here is a good example. in todays (19th october, 2009) alwatan daily (kuwait), kamel al-harami says: "Happy days are here for oil producing countries and are here to stay. OilŮ€producing countries will be celebrating end of the year with huge surplus cash in their treasuries." http://alwatandaily.alwatan.com.kw/Default.aspx?MgDid=806104&pageId=476 and here is what he said earlier in the year on march 9th, 2009 in a column titled "Don''t bet your money, oil prices will not go up": "In the near future oil prices in no way will pick up and go beyond $50" http://alwatandaily.alwatan.com.kw/Default.aspx?MgDid=732154&pageId=476 now i am sure the guy was speaking his mind with conviction but it is dangerous to assume the sagacity of anyone with a soapbox and it would have been dangerous for people that followed with their money. for reference, mr. al-harami is qualified as an 'independent energy analyst'. probably going to stay independent for a while. gluck. no matter what you do, don’t trust the so-called analysts and pundits. here is a good example. in todays (19th october, 2009) alwatan daily (kuwait), kamel al-harami says:

“Happy days are here for oil producing countries and are here to stay. OilŮ€producing countries will be celebrating end of the year with huge surplus cash in their treasuries.”

http://alwatandaily.alwatan.com.kw/Default.aspx?MgDid=806104&pageId=476

and here is what he said earlier in the year on march 9th, 2009 in a column titled “Don”t bet your money, oil prices will not go up”:

“In the near future oil prices in no way will pick up and go beyond $50″

http://alwatandaily.alwatan.com.kw/Default.aspx?MgDid=732154&pageId=476

now i am sure the guy was speaking his mind with conviction but it is dangerous to assume the sagacity of anyone with a soapbox and it would have been dangerous for people that followed with their money.

for reference, mr. al-harami is qualified as an ‘independent energy analyst’. probably going to stay independent for a while.

gluck.

]]> By: Keynesian http://www.alphadinar.com/2009/10/18/oil-breaks-out-sustainable-or-untenable/comment-page-1/#comment-2433 Keynesian Mon, 19 Oct 2009 04:38:33 +0000 http://www.alphadinar.com/?p=2437#comment-2433 Up until last week, the main driver behind oil's breakout has been the fall in the US dollar. Oil is inversely correlated with the dollar as oil prices are dollar denominated. Also, as the dollar slumps investors buy oil and other commodities as an inflation hedge. It is evident from the chart above that oil has failed to break the $76 level for a while and this move is considered extremely significant. The technical breakout in oil is a reconfirmation of a bullish trend especially since that happened on a day when the dollar strengthened. The rally in oil was mainly driven by a more fundamental story: lower than expected crude oil inventories coupled with good earnings and bullish news from China. I say SUSTAINABLE Up until last week, the main driver behind oil’s breakout has been the fall in the US dollar. Oil is inversely correlated with the dollar as oil prices are dollar denominated. Also, as the dollar slumps investors buy oil and other commodities as an inflation hedge.

It is evident from the chart above that oil has failed to break the $76 level for a while and this move is considered extremely significant. The technical breakout in oil is a reconfirmation of a bullish trend especially since that happened on a day when the dollar strengthened. The rally in oil was mainly driven by a more fundamental story: lower than expected crude oil inventories coupled with good earnings and bullish news from China.

I say SUSTAINABLE

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